You’ll agree that there is an undeniable thrill in waiting with bated breath to see what skin you’ll get from a case. However, when opening cases, players need to understand the chances of CS2 cases to be aware of the chances of getting certain items.
For years, the community has wondered about the likelihood of getting certain items from cases. Valve did not disclose the drop probability of items obtained from the cases until 2017. But now we have some data, and the Blix team is ready to share all their knowledge.
Contents
- 1 Highlights
- 2 What Are The CS2 Case Odds?
- 3 Probability StatTrak Variants
- 4 What Is The Probability Of Getting A Knife From A Case In CS2?
- 5 Probability Of Getting Covert Skins
- 6 Probability Of Getting CS2 Gloves
- 7 Sticker Capsule Odds
- 8 CS2 Souvenir Package Odds
- 9 Is It Worth It To Open CS2 Cases?
- 10 Recommendations For Opening CS2 Cases
- 11 Choosing The Right Cases
- 12 Getting Cases in CS2
- 13 Choosing When To Open A Case
- 14 Did CS2 Drop Rates Change After CS:GO?
Highlights
- Information about Case Odds
- Detailed information about the probability of dropping various items from crates
- Investment potential of each case study
The game is constantly releasing small updates to help make CS2 even better. You can check out the recent update here:
What Are The CS2 Case Odds?
Each CS2 weapon is assigned a rarity, officially known as “Weapon Quality”:
- White (Common): Consumer Grade, Base Grade.
- Blue (Uncommon): Industrial Grade.
- Navy Blue (Rare): Mil-Spec, High Grade.
- Purple (Mythical): Restricted, Remarkable.
- Hot Pink (Legendary): Classified, Exotic.
- Red (Ancient): Covert, Extraordinary.
- Gold (Exceedingly Rare): Knife, Gloves.
- Rose Gold (Immortal): Contraband (Discontinued).
You should know that White and Blue do not appear in CS2 cases but drop as rewards only after games. Contraband items are also not available here – they have been discontinued, so you can only buy such an item for money.
All other rarity levels have a predetermined probability of being obtained when opening a case. Mil-Spec items are generally more common compared to Covert or Exceedingly Rare items. While Valve, the game’s developer, has not officially revealed the exact probabilities for all cases, they have revealed the odds for some cases.
These CS2 drop rates were as follows:
- Navy Blue (Rare) – 79.92%
- Purple (Mythical) – 15.98%
- Hot Pink (Legendary) – 3.2%
- Red (Ancient) – 0.64%
- Gold (Exceedingly Rare) – 0.26%
As you can see, the likelihood that you’ll get a profit-generating skin when you open a CS2 case is extremely low.
We have a superb selection: New CS2 Cases and Souvenir Packages.
Probability StatTrak Variants
There’s another element to the chances of a CS2 case. With every drop of any weapon quality, there is a chance that the weapon will have StatTrak status, meaning that the weapon will track the number of kills committed by the wielder. The probability of this is 1 in 10 for any drop. The StatTrak skin variant is usually much more expensive than the non-StatTrak variant, as they are extremely rare on already rare skins.
What Is The Probability Of Getting A Knife From A Case In CS2?
Valve has shared the official odds, revealing that knife skins in CS2 are extremely rare, especially bowie knife cases. The chance of getting a knife from opening a case is only 0.26%, meaning that, on average, you can pull out a knife in one out of 400 cases.
This means that every time you open a case with a knife, there is a 0.26% chance of dropping the knife and a 99.74% chance of not dropping it. A knife can drop of your 15th or 1500th case with an equal opportunity. It’s a matter of pure luck.
The article 2024 Guide: Best Knife Cases to Open in CS2 provides a selection of the best cases for this.
Probability Of Getting Covert Skins
When opening the cases, the chances of getting skin, which is usually red and highly coveted by anyone in the CS2 community, are estimated to be around 0.64%.
While these cases offer a higher chance of getting what you want than knife skins, they are still relatively rare compared to other rarity levels among all the top CS2 skins.
Probability Of Getting CS2 Gloves
When opening cases, the chances of getting glove skins are identical to knife skins, about 1/400. Of course, to get a pair of gloves, you need to open a case with glove skins in its list of extremely rare items. We mentioned such cases in our article: 2024 Guide: Best Knife Cases to Open in CS2.
Sticker Capsule Odds
CS2 sticker capsules contain CS2 stickers of varying rarity and value. You usually get one of the following types of items:
- High Grade
- Remarkable
- Exotic
- Extraordinary
Foil stickers are the rarest, and High Grade stickers are the most common. However, no one knows the chances of getting a foil sticker. We have made a table with approximate chances of getting one or another sticker:
| Rarity | Odds | Simplified Odds |
| High Grade | 80% | 4 in 5 |
| Remarkable | 16% | 1 in 6 |
| Exotic | 3.2% | 1 in 31 |
| Extraordinary | 0.641% | 1 in 156 |
CS2 Souvenir Package Odds
Souvenir Packages usually contain CS2 skins that belong to these classes:
- Consumer Grade (grey): 79.87% chance
- Industrial Grade (light-blue): 15.97% chance
- Mil-Spec (dark-blue): 3.33% chance
- Restricted (purple): 0.66% chance
- Classified (pink): 0.13% chance
- Covert (red): 0.027% chance
The odds of Souvenir Packages offering high-quality items are incredibly low because these items are usually some of the best in the game.
In addition, Souvenir Packages themselves are often expensive. The most expensive ones can exceed $1,000 per unit! Perhaps the most famous Souvenir Package is the ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone, which costs around $2,000.
Is It Worth It To Open CS2 Cases?
Opening CS2 cases can be an exciting part of the game for players who enjoy the tension and excitement of unpacking rare skins or knives. The idea of unpacking a scarce knife or gloves adds to the fun of the gameplay.
However, it’s essential to manage your budget and set expectations. The chances of getting a valuable item like a Covert skin or knife are slim, and constantly opening cases in hopes of getting a rare item can quickly become expensive.
If you’re looking for an alternative, some players prefer to open cases on third-party websites. We have an article about this: Best Sites For Case Open in CS2.
Recommendations For Opening CS2 Cases
Choosing The Right Cases
To increase your chances of getting valuable items from unboxing cases, you need to understand how to get CS2 cases. You should also pay attention to market trends, stay on top of new cases, and capitalize on any available offers.
Especially for investors, we have prepared a table where you can see how much a case pays off.
| CS2 Case Name | Cost of Case | Cost of Key | Average Return on Case | Return on Investment (%) |
| Chroma 2 Case | $2.15 | $2.49 | $2.30 | 49.57% |
| Chroma 3 Case | $1.90 | $2.49 | $1.80 | 41% |
| Chroma Case | $2.70 | $2.49 | $2.50 | 48.17% |
| Clutch Case | $0.40 | $2.49 | $1.15 | 39.79% |
| CS20 Case | $0.60 | $2.49 | $1.45 | 46.93% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | $80 | $2.49 | $41 | 49.70% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $11.50 | $2.49 | $11.20 | 80.06% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $6.55 | $2.49 | $7 | 77.43% |
| Danger Zone Case | $0.75 | $2.49 | $1.50 | 46.30% |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | $0.70 | $2.49 | $1.25 | 39.18% |
| eSports 2013 Case | $41 | $2.49 | $11.50 | 26.44% |
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | $8 | $2.49 | $7.10 | 67.68% |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | $7.70 | $2.49 | $4.65 | 45.63% |
| Falchion Case | $0.95 | $2.49 | $2 | 58.14% |
| Fracture Case | $0.25 | $2.49 | $1.35 | 49.27% |
| Gallery Case | $1.07 | $2.49 | $4.02 | 112.8% |
| Gamma 2 Case | $2.10 | $2.49 | $1.50 | 32.68% |
| Gamma Case | $2.10 | $2.49 | $1.80 | 39.22% |
| Glove Case | $5 | $2.49 | $1.25 | 16.69% |
| Horizon Case | $0.75 | $2.49 | $1.80 | 55.56% |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | $8.10 | $2.49 | $7.40 | 69.88% |
| Kilowatt Case | $0.93 | $2.49 | $2.47 | 72.43% |
| Operation Bravo Case | $38 | $2.49 | $19 | 46.93% |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $6 | $2.49 | $2.55 | 30.04% |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | $4.30 | $2.49 | $3.50 | 51.55% |
| Operation Hydra Case | $16.20 | $2.49 | $9.25 | 49.49% |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $2.90 | $2.49 | $3 | 55.66% |
| Operation Riptide Case | $4.85 | $2.49 | $2.45 | 33.38% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $2.50 | $2.49 | $2.75 | 55.11% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | $2.15 | $2.49 | $3.15 | 67.89% |
| Prisma 2 Case | $0.70 | $2.49 | $1.65 | 51.72% |
| Prisma Case | $0.65 | $2.49 | $1.83 | 58.28% |
| Recoil Case | $0.20 | $2.49 | $1.50 | 55.76% |
| Revolution Case | $0.30 | $2.49 | $1.75 | 62.72% |
| Revolver Case | $1.80 | $2.49 | $2.35 | 54.78% |
| Shadow Case | $0.90 | $2.49 | $2 | 59% |
| Shattered Web Case | $3.70 | $2.49 | $3.65 | 58.97% |
| Snakebite Case | $0.25 | $2.49 | $1.35 | 49.27% |
| Spectrum 2 Case | $1.65 | $2.49 | $1.50 | 36.23% |
| Spectrum Case | $2.40 | $2.49 | $2.40 | 49.08% |
Getting Cases in CS2
If you are buying cases and keys, carefully compare all the offers on the market. The most favorable ones are on CS.MONEY.
CS2 players have other reliable options for obtaining cases and keys: the in-game store and the Steam marketplace. The in-game store offers a secure shopping experience with prices set by the game’s developers, while buying from individual sellers on the Steam Marketplace offers more negotiation flexibility. Learn more about this topic in our article How to Get Cases in CS2? Guide and All Methods.
In CS2, players can access cases and keys in their gameplay. You can get a case in the weekly drop for rank-ups. Prime subscribers have additional perks like weekly weapon and graffiti cases that can be earned through in-game achievements. Read more about Premier Mode: How To Unlock Premier In CS2.
Choosing When To Open A Case
The timing of opening cases can significantly affect your chances of getting valuable skins. Factors such as market value, rarity, and frequency of drops must be considered. Therefore, plan strategically for obtaining and opening cases.
Did CS2 Drop Rates Change After CS:GO?
No. After the transition to Counter-Strike 2, neither the CS:GO case odds nor the CS:GO case drop rate changed.
